The 2022 midterms are over and everyone is talking about the Red Wave that never ended up materializing for the Republican Party.
The midterm's results defied all expectations. Usually, these elections almost always result in the sitting majority losing its control of the chambers, and the extent of these losses changes depending on the popularity of the sitting President (assuming they're of the same party that is in control of Congress).
Rampant inflation and a recession on the horizon contributed to the Biden administration's waning popularity, and all signs pointed to huge Republican gains.
Alas, that did not transpire, and Republicans only managed to very narrowly win back the House.
There are many arguments as to why Democrats were able to hold strong despite widespread discontent against the sitting government. The Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade in the summer massively drove voter turnout on the left more than what was expected, especially among young people. According to some exit polls, abortion trumped inflation and economic worries as a major factor in voting. Moreover, the great number of election-denying, far-right candidates endorsed by former President Trump who ran for office pretty much all lost. Moderate Republicans and Independent voters either did not turn out or voted for Democratic candidates who were seen as less chaotic and radical figures. Lastly, from a demographic lens, Democrats substantially benefited from college-educated and middle to high class white voters in suburbs.
One thing is certain however: the Democrats' surprise successes this election were not because of the Hispanic vote.
In this election cycle, only 53% of overall Latino registered voters reported to lean Democrat. These numbers are representative of a trend that has stirred considerable panic on the left.
Since the 2018 midterms, Hispanic voter margins for the Democratic party have gone down 9 points - and 21 points specifically among Latino men. And with the Hispanic vote just recently becoming the second largest voting bloc in the country, this ideological repositioning is of great concern to the Democratic party establishment.
In the 2002 midterms, the Democrats were in a very tough spot. The elections were the first since Bush's ascendency to the presidency and the GOP was incredibly popular and well positioned to reestablish dominance in Congress. Around that time a book called The Emerging Democratic Majority, by political scientist Ruy Teixeira and journalist John B. Judis, was released, arguing that a major demographic shift was about to occur in the US. Voters would rapidly become more urban, secularized, educated, and most importantly, diverse. As a result, a new majority in the electorate would form and thus secure Democratic success in the country in future elections. A sort of "demographic destiny".
To explain Teixeira and Judis' argument, it is important to understand why minorities are associated with the Democratic party.
The Republican Party was founded with the idea of being slightly more socially liberal than the already well established Democratic party way back in the 1850s. The election of Abraham Lincoln to the presidency in 1860 the ensuing Civil War led to a more radicalized position. Therefore, the Republican party became the party of abolition and Black rights. This continued into Reconstruction and the Republicans enjoyed great success. However, by the time the 1920s came around the Republicans became more and more associated with corporate elitism and "big business", which paved the way for Franklin D. Roosevelt's election as a Democrat in 1932. His policies in helping America recover from the Great Depression transformed the Democratic party into the party of the working class, and subsequently initiated a shift towards the left. Heading into the 1950s, even though the Democratic party was initially known as a party that espoused conservativism, new faces like Kennedy pushed Democrats into the social left as well (this led to the creation of factions that chose to stay conservative, like the Southern Democrats, or "Dixiecrats").
When President Johnson signs the Civil Rights Act in 1964, Democrats are from then on considered the liberal party of the United States. Socially, the Democratic party in the coming years would begin to champion for Black rights, Hispanic rights, LGBTQ rights, climate change awareness, and so on.
Therefore, massive population increases and rapid urbanization would eventually create new majorities who would naturally skew Democrats, hence the "demographic destiny". When Obama was overwhelmingly elected in 2008, liberals saw this as the confirmation of this "prophecy".
When relating this to the Hispanic vote, one merely needs to look at the example of Miami-Dade County in Florida. The county is the state's most populous and is packed with Cuban Americans. Obama won the county by 16 points in 2008 and 24 points in 2012. This was in spite of significant efforts from Republicans in Florida and sitting Governor Jeb Bush to create important relationships with the Latino community there.
Successful results in Miami-Dade and this whole concept of "demographic destiny" led to Democrats arrogantly assuming that Hispanic voters in the county were a lock. That they were now part of the party base. This was shown when Charlie Crist ran for governor the first time in 2014, where he neglected to concentrate his campaign in the county. Even though he still won the county by a considerable amount, turnout was low in that particular election among Hispanics and he lost that election. In 2016, Hillary Clinton poured a lot of campaign resources into South Florida and ended up emphatically losing the state to Trump. Since then, Miami-Dade has increasingly turned more and more red. In 2022, GOP incumbents Senator Rubio and Governor DeSantis won Miami-Dade by 54% and 55% respectively.
A major urban center in the US heavily populated by Hispanics is now comfortably Republican. Who would've thought?
Miami-Dade is the perfect representation of what is going on with the Latino vote.
Many have described a cultural and class disconnect with Hispanics when it comes to rhetoric from the Democratic party. Firstly, the radicalization and polarization of Democrats, especially on social issues, has alienated Hispanic voters in a cultural disconnect. Just like the Black electorate, many Hispanic voters are religious, and faith plays an important role in their political decisions. Democrats, especially younger and newer figures, have ramped up discourse on issues like abortion, trans rights, pronouns and gender identities, climate change, etc. While these issues hit home with college-educated White liberals, it doesn't resonate at all with the majority of older and less educated Hispanic voters. Cubans are the Hispanic subgroup most conservative leaning, which explains the Miami-Dade phenomenon.
There's also no denying that there is a class disconnect as well. Another interesting ideological shift is occurring between the two parties. As Democratic policies are increasingly gaining momentum among college-educated and suburban voters, a class shift is occurring. While AOC, Bernie Sanders, and other quasi-socialists still hold a strong following with young, poorer, workers, the main Democratic establishment is now becoming the party of middle-high class voters and "big business". The Republicans and their shift to the far-right have started to resonate a lot with poorer workers; the conservative rural mentality is now being accepted among lower-class voters across the country. And as a majority of Hispanics are a part of this category, they're moving that way too.
This all also has something to do with the overall change in rhetoric we've seen from the Democrats. Under Obama, the Democratic party was the party of inclusion and positive social mobility through hard work and resilience. They were the party in which during the late 2000s and early 2010s, the time of the Great Recession and tense foreign affairs and conflicts, fought for hope and change. This was greatly successful in establishing a voter base amongst minorities, which is why Obama was so successful and revered by them. However in recent years, polarization and the rise of Trumpism on the right has fostered a sense of fear. Since 2016, Democrats have essentially become the anti-Trump, anti-MAGA party and that has negatively effected their pull on Hispanic voters, especially those lower-class conservatives that chose t0 vote blue.
Immigration policy is also a massive issue for Hispanic voters that has contributed to the shift right. You'd think that a much more liberal approach to immigration policy and border security would be a win among Hispanics. And although these policies do sound nice to younger Latinos and illegal immigrants, the vast majority of Hispanics that immigrated legally and worked hard to create a good life for them and their family feel kind of hard-done by. Furthermore, open borders cause significant humanitarian pressure on border communities majorly populated by Latinos in states like Texas and Arizona.
There is also the feeling among Hispanics that they, just like all minorities, are the victims of political maneuvring and simply feel paternalized and patronized by Democrats who almost passively promote Hispanic rights and favorable policies just to "tick a box". In regards to immigration policy, Democrats resort to the same ideas and prejudices as do Republicans when THEIR communities are the ones being heavily affected by illegal immigration. An example of this is how Mayor Eric Adams of New York City has dealt with illegal immigration the significant humanitarian crisis it has caused. The hypocrisy here is concerning to say the least.
Hispanics are starting to believe they're just pawns in a game, a piece of that assured "demographic destiny" that are guaranteed to deliver results to Democrats. At the same time, they also feel abandoned by Democrats as a result of their arrogance when it comes to securing Hispanic votes.
This is a huge problem for the left.
Even though right-wing fanatics like Tucker Carlson from Fox News chat a great deal about this "Great Replacement Theory" and how Democrats and their main sinister, evil goal is to flood the US with secularized woke immigrants to grant them electoral wins, the reality is, it's the GOP that stands to gain from this. As the Hispanic voting bloc rises, so does their shift to the right, thus ensuring future successes for Republicans. And this doesn't just apply to Hispanics, but people of color overall are shifting to the right.
It is my strong opinion that if DeSantis wins the Republican nomination, he will cruise to victory in 2024. He hails from Florida, a Latino-heavy state in which he's garnered their overwhelming support, and is very popular for his acceptance of Trumpist conservatism without the lunacy and fanaticism that alienates Independents and moderate Republicans.
It won't be a surprise at all if it's the Hispanic vote which secures him the win.
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