2022 was a rather tumultuous year for American politics. From the war in Ukraine to sky-high inflation, chaotic midterms, and controversial Supreme Court decisions, this past year has been nothing short of intense. However, as we enter 2023, we can expect much of the same coming out of Washington as America continues its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, faces looming economic troubles, and enters the third year of the Biden administration and the 118th Session of Congress.
Turmoil on the Hill
It's January 7 and there are currently 0 members serving in the House of Representatives.
Such is the state of conflict Congress is experiencing right now as debates over the future of leadership for both parties engulf Capitol Hill.
The 2022 midterms were supposed to be a landslide victory for the Republican Party, with many predicting that the GOP would comfortably take over both the House and the Senate from the Democrats. However, that has not been the case at all. The Democrats were able to actually gain a seat in the Senate and only lose 10 seats in the House.
That being said, the Republicans were still able to grab the majority in the House, meaning there will be a split Congress once again. The results of the midterms will have major long-term political implications as we head into the elections of 2024, but for now, it has played a huge part in the current congressional leadership crisis.
Over the holidays, all three major House Democratic leaders, including Nancy Pelosi, agreed to step down from their leadership roles. Concerns about the age of the Democratic establishment took over the younger base of the party, which led to the Democrats all rallying behind New York congressman Hakeem Jeffries.
On the other side of the aisle, however, the GOP's regained majority in the House meant that it was their responsibility to select the new speaker. As I'm writing right now in this exact moment, Kevin McCarthy has just been elected Speaker of the House after a whopping 15 rounds of voting, the most since 1859. Fierce opposition from the most far-right wing of the House Republicans proved to be a significant obstacle to McCarthy's success.
So what does this all mean in terms of the next two years?
Well, McCarthy's win was certainly secured through major concessions to radical, Trumpist conservatives, meaning that figures such as Matt Gaetz, Jim Jordan, Marjorie Taylor-Greene, and others from the Freedom Caucus will have an important influence on the legislative policy of House Republicans for these few years to come. Furthermore, heightened partisan divides combined with populist pro-Trump influence will result in investigations, obstructions, and maybe even impeachments against President Biden; anything to crush his reelection hopes.
Therefore, McCarthy will have to tread carefully after concessions to the Trumpist faction, attempting to keep the Republican party intact and ready for 2024.
Spending and the Economy
Many analysts have predicted that a recession can be expected to arrive sometime in 2023. With the country already plagued by inflation and high costs of living, a recession would be a huge blow to the nation and transform the election landscape heading into 2024.
High polarization and partisanship coupled with very slim majorities in the two chambers of congress for both parties could prove to be a serious obstacle when it comes to deciding on the budget and raising the debt ceiling.
For instance, the US is predicted to hit the debt ceiling by August of this year. Biden and the Democrats will be hoping to raise the limit and not cut spending. If Republican attempts to stymie them are successful, there is a real possibility that the United States could be forced to default.
McCarthy's difficult win and the far-right's growing influence in Congress are sure to give way to fiery showdowns on the debt ceiling issue and government funding, all in an effort to push back against moderate Republicans and the Democrats. Together with the threat of recession, congressional and executive inaction could spell economic doom for the country.
Biden, Trump, and 2024
Perhaps the biggest questions about what will happen in 2023 aren't about 2023 at all.
The elections of 2024 are already in everybody's mind. It is unclear whether or not President Biden will run again with many concerned about his advanced age (although it's looking like he will end up running again). Does the Democratic Party have faith in him? Pelosi, former Speaker, and Schumer, Senate Majority Leader, have publicly stated in an interview with CNN that they would support a Biden reelection campaign, demonstrating that support from the establishment is still there. But it looks like the younger, leftist part of the party believes that the Democrats should put forward someone more in tune with the times.
For President Biden to ensure a solid reelection campaign he needs to convince the left of his party through favorable policy while at the same time appealing to moderate Republicans or right-leaning independents to vote for him rather than the chaotic pro-Trump faction of the GOP, as he successfully did in 2020. Bipartisanship will be key, but so will continuing to espouse tough stances on social issues, as he's done so far.
On the other side, the question will be whether Trump is a strong enough candidate to mount up another charge in 2024. The populist, nihilistic, Republican strongman still has control over a significant portion of the party and its more radical, conservative supporters. However, Trump's standing within the GOP is getting weaker. His failure to endorse and put up strong candidates in 2022 led to disappointing midterms for the Republicans. Additionally, he's facing indictments and criminal charges which could have a strong impact on what he's able to do (or provide him with a great chance to politicize the issues, as he's already done). The chaos that surrounds him is concerning to rank-and-file Republicans, who see him as a liability.
Even though Trump could be on the decline, Trumpism itself is still very much alive. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is gaining momentum as a much younger yet less chaotic version of Trump. Echoing the same ideas and rhetoric, he is considered the Republican rising star and could cancel out a lot of the advantages Biden holds if he were to run against Trump again. Although a Biden-Trump rematch is for now the most probable matchup, their control over their respective parties plus whatever happens with the economy will prove to be the largest determinants heading into 2024.
There are many other issues and questions to be raised in 2023. The foreign policy issue will be massive. The war in Ukraine will still continue to be of great importance, but so will US relations with China and the Middle East, where the Biden administration has seen strains. Moreover, what the radical Supreme Court has in store this year following an eventful 2022 with the overturning of Roe v. Wade will also be interesting to watch.
2023 looks to be a year where tensions and issues resulting from the aftermath of the 2020 election and the COVID-19 pandemic might start to approach a climax.
Sources: